🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving together. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still