Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
