Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
